China's exports surge in November, defying expectations post-US trade truce
A cargo vessel laden with containers departs Qingdao Port, Shandong Province, on December 4, 2025, symbolizing China's economic resilience.
Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
China's exports exceeded market forecasts in November, as manufacturers raced to ship goods following a trade agreement with the U.S., marking a significant shift from October's unexpected decline.
Outbound shipments surged 5.9% year-over-year in November, surpassing economists' predictions of 3.8% growth, according to China's customs data. This rebound follows a 1.1% drop in October, the first contraction since March 2024.
However, import growth of 1.9% fell short of the expected 3% rise, as Beijing renewed its commitment to expanding imports and balancing trade, despite criticism of its aggressive exports.
Imports had grown just 1% in October, hindered by a prolonged housing downturn and rising job insecurity, which dampened domestic consumption.
Chinese manufacturers breathed a sigh of relief after President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump's meeting in South Korea in late October, temporarily halting a series of restrictive measures.
The two leaders agreed to reduce tariffs on each other's goods, lift export controls on critical minerals and advanced technology, and Beijing pledged to increase purchases of American soybeans and collaborate with the U.S. to combat fentanyl trafficking.
Despite the truce, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods remain at approximately 47.5%, while Beijing's tariffs on U.S. imports stand at around 32%.
China's factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month in November, according to an official manufacturing survey, with new orders continuing to decline. A private survey revealed that manufacturing activity unexpectedly entered contraction.
Chinese policymakers are set to convene for the annual Central Economic Work Conference this month, where they will discuss economic growth targets, budget, and policy priorities for the upcoming year. Specific targets will be unveiled at the 'Two Sessions' meeting in March 2026.
Goldman Sachs predicts that Beijing will maintain its 2026 growth target at 'around 5%', requiring early policy easing to boost growth from a likely weak fourth-quarter 2025 performance.
The Wall Street bank anticipates Chinese authorities to lift the fiscal deficit ceiling by 1 percentage point of GDP, cut policy rates by 20 basis points, and intensify stimulus measures to stabilize the housing market.
Despite a strengthening yuan in recent weeks, China's exports have not slowed. The offshore yuan has strengthened by nearly 5% since April, reaching 7.0669 per dollar at the market open on Monday, according to LSEG data.
Despite steady 5% annual GDP growth since 2023, Weijian Shan, CEO of PAG, emphasizes the urgent need for China to reduce export dependence and shift towards domestic consumption for sustainable growth. A stronger yuan could boost consumption's contribution to economic growth, potentially reaching 86% of 2023 levels, by lowering import costs and enhancing household purchasing power.
