The brutal reality of political leadership is never more apparent than when a leader is publicly undermined. It’s a sight that never loses its shock value, no matter how often it happens. The latest example? The relentless pressure on Sussan Ley, the Liberal Party’s first female leader, who finds herself at the center of a storm. But here’s where it gets controversial: Victorian senator Sarah Henderson, a staunch right-winger and vocal opponent of net zero, didn’t hold back. On Friday, she declared, ‘Sussan is losing support.’ While she claimed to believe in miracles, her tone suggested anything but. And this is the part most people miss: Henderson stopped short of calling for a leadership spill, but her intent was clear—she wants Ley out.
The question now is how long Ley can hold on. Most observers agree her days are numbered, but removing her this year would be seen as indecent. For now, the pieces aren’t quite in place—the ducks aren’t in a row. Henderson’s attack sparked the expected backlash, with colleagues rallying around Ley and Angus Taylor, her main rival, denying any challenge. Even Jane Hume, who’s been critical of Ley in the past, offered support, though her loyalty seems more about her moderate stance and backing for net zero than genuine solidarity.
The coming week will be a crucible for Ley. If she falters, those ducks will line up fast. If she survives, her position will stabilize—temporarily. Meanwhile, the Liberals have laid out a precise timeline to decide their stance on net zero, a policy that’s dividing the party. By Sunday, they aim to have a joint Coalition position, but with the Nationals already ditching net zero, the outcome is anyone’s guess. The Coalition could fracture, or they might agree to disagree.
Stepping back, the Liberals face a deeper, long-term crisis: leadership. Replacing Ley with Taylor or even Andrew Hastie might be tempting, but few believe any of them could lead the party back to power. And this is where it gets interesting: could former treasurer Josh Frydenberg be the answer? Defeated in Kooyong in 2022 by teal candidate Monique Ryan, Frydenberg now holds a senior banking role but is rumored to still crave politics. His supporters control the Liberal Party in Kooyong, and his autobiography, co-written with Gideon Haigh, drops next year. If he hasn’t clarified his political ambitions by then, speculation will soar.
Kooyong is a tough battleground for Liberals, with a high proportion of renters, though recent redistributions have tilted it slightly in their favor. Ryan would be a tough opponent, but Frydenberg’s name recognition—having won the seat four times—could be a game-changer. However, returning to politics would be a gamble. Political consultant Kos Samaras highlights three challenges: winning the seat, gaining support from a party dominated by regional conservatives, and convincing them to adopt a moderate platform that appeals to urban voters.
For the Liberals, Frydenberg’s return could expand their leadership options, attract high-profile candidates, and bolster business support. Ideologically centrist, he’d likely handle economic debates competently. But would he be seen as a step forward or a return to the past? At 54, the next election would be his last shot at a political comeback. Polling in Kooyong will be intense as he weighs his future.
But here’s the real question: Could Frydenberg’s return unite the Liberals and make them competitive again, or would it be a risky throwback? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—this is one debate that’s far from over.
